Thursday, September 29, 2016

Today Rupee opens flat at 66.85 per dollar In currency Market


The Indian rupee remained unchanged in opening at 66.85 per dollar on Friday against previous close of 66.85.

The US dollar snapped its longest slide since August as gross domestic product and jobless claims data bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve is set raise interest rates by year-end.

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)
US Dollar Index traded higher by 0.14 percent yesterday as the robust release of GDP data from the nation boosted sentiment. The US economy expanded by 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2016, higher than previously estimated. Robust hiring and wage gains have prompted the consumers to spend more thereby helping the economy to expand. Moreover, a report said that trading clients have withdrawn excess cash and positions held with Deutsche Bank. This prompted the investors to stay away from risky assets thereby boosting the demand for safe - haven DX. US Dollar made an intraday high o f 95.63 and closed at 95.47 levels on Thursday.

OUTLOOK

Rupee is likely to depreciate tracking losses in Asian market equities after a report said that Deutsche Bank’s trading clients have withdrawn excess cash and positions held with the bank. This will keep the Indian markets and its currency pressurized.

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Tuesday, September 27, 2016

At Todays Market Rupee opens higher at 66.44 per dollar

 
The Indian rupee opened higher by 4 paise at 66.44 per dollar on Wednesday versus previous close of 66.48.

The 10-year US Treasury note yield hovered near a three-week low of 1.546 percent touched overnight amid speculation that Europe's banking woes could delay the Fed's next interest rate hike.
 
US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)
US Dollar Index traded higher by 0.1 percent yesterday as recent weakness in the DX prompted the traders to place fresh bets. Moreover, robust release of CB Consumer Confidence data from the nation added to the strength. It increased to 104.1 in Sep’1 6 from previous month’s 101.8 thereby boosting optimism over the strength of the economy. Moreover, in yesterday’s US Presidential debate , markets considered that Hillary Clinton did better than her rival Donald Trump which added to the strength of the greenback. The Presidential debates are very important as half of America's likely voters rely on them to make their likely Presidential choice in the November 8 election. All the above factors boosted the demand for US Dollar which made an intraday high of 9 5. 58 and closed at 95.3 1 levels on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK
Rupee is likely to sideways to positive as sustained selling of the US Dollar by exporters and banks will keep the INR positive. However, weakness in t h e Asian market equities as markets remain cautious ahead of the Yellen speech will likely keep the Indian markets and its currency a bit pressurized.
 
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Monday, September 26, 2016

Today Indian Rupee rose in the early trade on Tuesday

 
The Indian rupee rose in the early trade on Tuesday. It has opened higher by 7 paise at 66.53 per dollar, which is a 3-week high, against previous close of 66.60.
 
US Dollar Index traded lower by 0.2 percent yesterday as markets remained tensed ahead of the US Presidential debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. The Presidential debates are very important as half of America's likely voters rely on them to make their likely Presidential choice in the November 8 election. Moreover, markets are still discounting the outcome of Sep’16 FOMC Monetary Policy meet were the key interest rates were left unchanged. New home sales data decreased to 609K in Aug’16 from previous month’s 659K; adding to the jittery sentimen tin spite coming better than the expected levels. All the above factors dented the demand for US Dollar which made an intraday low of 95.02 and closed at 95.21 levels on Monday.

OUTLOOK

Rupee is likely to appreciate owing to weakness in the DX as markets take cues from the US Presidential debate . Moreover , sustained selling of the US Dollar by exporters and banks will further keep the INR positive.
 
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Sunday, September 25, 2016

September 26 - 30 - Forex - Weekly outlook:

 
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar recovered slightly against a basket of major currencies on Friday, but remained near a two-week low as traders continued to digest policy announcements from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of its policy meeting on Wednesday, but hinted that a hike could come in December if the job market continued to improve.

Monday, September 26 New Zealand is to release data on the trade balance. In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is to testify before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of European Parliament, in Brussels. Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan is to speak at an event in Geneva. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak in Washington. The U.S. is to release data on new home sales. Later in the day, the market will turn its attention to the first televised U.S. presidential debate between Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and Republican hopeful Donald Trump.

Tuesday, September 27 The U.S. is to release private sector data on consumer confidence. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer is due to speak at an event in Washington, DC.

Wednesday, September 28 ECB President Draghi is to speak about current developments in the euro area at the German Bundestag, in Berlin. The U.S. is to publish data on durable goods orders. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee on regulation and supervision, while St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard is to speak in St. Louis.

Thursday, September 29 BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak in Tokyo. Germany is to publish preliminary inflation data and a report on unemployment change. The U.K. is report on net lending. The U.S. is to publish final figures on second quarter growth, the weekly report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak, via satellite, at an event in Kansas.

Friday, September 30 Japan is to release data on inflation and household spending. China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing index. The U.K. is to report on the current account and publish revised data on second quarter growth. The euro zone is to release preliminary data on consumer inflation, while Germany is to release data on retail sales. Canada is to publish data on economic growth. The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal income and spending, a report on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

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Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Today Rupee opens at 66.86 per dollar, gains 16 paise in market

 
The Indian rupee gained in early trade on Thursday. It has opened higher by 16 paise at 66.86 per dollar versus 67.02 Wednesday.

The US dollar extended losses against a basket of major currencies after the US Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged and projected a less aggressive rise of interest rates in coming years.

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)

The FOMC meeting was very important for the US Dollar Index which ended lower by 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trading session. The US Federal Reserve kept the key policy rates unchanged and hinted at the possibility of a rate hike by the end of 2016. Markets believe that Dec’16 would be that month since Nov’16 is when the Presidential Elections will be conducted and the US Fed does not want any unusual volatility. The US Fed Chairwoman expressed confidence in economic growth, but not enough to make a move this month. The committee also reduced its expectations both for economic growth and inflation this year to 1.8 percent and 4.7 percent respectively from 2 percent and 4.7 percent. All the above factors dented the demand for US Dollar which made an intraday low of 95.32 and closed at 95.67 levels on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK

Rupee is likely to trade higher in today’s trading session as markets discount the FOMC and BoJ monetary policy review where the interest rates was left unchanged. Weakness in the DX will in turn boost the demand of the Indian Rupee. Moreover, higher trading in global market equities will govern the trend of the Indian markets and its currency.
 

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Today Rupee opens higher at 66.99 per dollar in the market


The Indian rupee opened marginally higher at 66.99 per dollar on Wednesday versus 67.01 Tuesday.

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)

The US Dollar Index had a volatile start and ended higher 0.2 percent yesterday as investors speculates whether the US Fed will hike interest rates or not in today’s monetary policy review. Markets are expecting no rate hike move in the upcoming policy meet; discounting the dovish comment s by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Moreover, recent disappointing release of economic datasets excluding the inflation rate which surprisingly came on a better note has dimmed the chances of Sep’16 rate hike. However, they are expecting that the US Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen will give some hint on future rate hike timings due to which demand for DX got a boost which made an intraday high of 95.99 and closed at 95.98 levels on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK

Rupee is likely to depreciate in today’s trading session as heavy speculation prior to the release of FOMC monetary policy review will keep the DX volatile. Moreover, negative trading in Asian market equities will govern the trend of the Indian markets and its currency.

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Monday, September 19, 2016

Today Rupee opens flat at 66.97 per dollar in the market

 
The Indian rupee opened flat at 66.97 per dollar on Tuesday versus previous close 66.96.

The US dollar fell from over two-week high against a basket of major currencies on expectations that any Bank of Japan action this week would not weaken the yen and the Federal Reserve would refrain from raising rates.

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)

The US Dollar Index traded lower by 0.3 percent yesterday as investors plays safe prior to the FOMC monetary policy meeting that is scheduled to be held today and tomorrow. This cautious stance and the recent strength in the currency have prompted the traders to book profits. Markets are expecting no rate hike move in the upcoming policy meet; discounting the dovish comments by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Moreover, recent disappointing release of economic datasets excluding the inflation rate which surprisingly came on a better note has dimmed the chances of Sep’16 rate hike. All the above factors kept the DX pressurized which made an intraday low of 95.79 and closed at 95.77 levels on Monday.

OUTLOOK

Rupee is likely to trade higher as investors are expecting no unexpected move in today’s FOMC monetary policy meeting that will end tomorrow. This will keep the DX pressurized in turn proving support to the Indian Rupee. Moreover, gain in Asian market equities will govern the trend of t he Indian markets and its currency.
 
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Sunday, September 18, 2016

Today Rupee opens higher at 66.95 per dollar At currency market

 
The Indian rupee opened marginally higher by 3 paise at 66.95 per dollar on Monday versus 66.98 Friday. Pramit Brahmbhatt of Veracity said, "A weak dollar versus peers and positive cues from global equity market will help the rupee appreciate today. The trading range for the day is seen between 66.80-67/dollar."

The US dollar hit a more than two-week high against a basket of major currencies on Friday after US inflation data boosted bets on a faster pace of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, while uncertainty ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting limited the dollar's gains against the yen.
 

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Today Rupee consolidates, opens flat at 66.88 per dollar


The Indian rupee has opened at 66.88 a dollar on Thursday compared with 66.89 a dollar in previous session.The currency closed marginally higher at 66.89 a dollar yesterday compared with 66.92 a dollar on Monday. 

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD) 

US Dollar Index fell by 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trading session as latest comments by Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Monday that the Federal Reserve should avoid removing support for the U.S. economy too quickly, adding to bets the central bank would leave interest rates unchanged next week, has added to confusion regarding the timing of the rate hike. Earlier last week, Fed member Eric Rosengren on Friday warned that inaction on the part of rate hike could cost the US economy dearly. US Dollar Index made an intraday low of 95.2 and ended at 95.32 levels on Wednesday. 

OUTLOOK 

Rupee is likely to depreciate tracking losses in the Asian market equities ahead of crucial monetary policy decisions in the US and Japan. Also, a string of important data releases from the US in the evening session will restrict the risk appetite.

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Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Today Rupee consolidates, opens flat at 66.88 per dollar

 
The Indian rupee has opened at 66.88 a dollar on Thursday compared with 66.89 a dollar in previous session. Mohan Shenoi of Kotak Mahindra Bank says global currency markets are rangebound ahead of the September FOMC rate setting decision. According to him, the rupee is likely to trade in a range of 66.70-67 per dollar today. The currency closed marginally higher at 66.89 a dollar yesterday compared with 66.92 a dollar on Monday.

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)

US Dollar Index fell by 0.3 percent in yesterday’s trading session as latest comments by Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Monday that the Federal Reserve should avoid removing support for the U.S. economy too quickly, adding to bets the central bank would leave interest rates unchanged next week, has added to confusion regarding the timing of the rate hike. Earlier last week, Fed member Eric Rosengren on Friday warned that inaction on the part of rate hike could cost the US economy dearly. US Dollar Index made an intraday low of 95.2 and ended at 95.32 levels on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK

Rupee is likely to depreciate tracking losses in the Asian market equities ahead of crucial monetary policy decisions in the US and Japan. Also, a string of important data releases from the US in the evening session will restrict the risk appetite.
 
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Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Today Rupee opens 2-week low at 66.99 per dollar in the currency market

 
The Indian rupee opened at two weeks low at 66.99 per dollar on Wednesday, down 7 paise against 66.92 Monday.he US dollar gained against the yen and riskier commodity currencies after the impact of dovish remarks from a top Federal Reserve official faded, boosting sentiment toward the greenback.

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)

US Dollar Index rose by 0.6 percent in yesterday’s trading session amid a decline in US stocks and rising bond yields. Recent dovish comments by Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren and Fed Governor Lael Brainard have reduced expectations of a rate hike in Sep’16 monetary policy review. Both the policymakers have hinted towards a rate hike possibility by the end of 2016, preferably Dec’16. The likelihood of a rate hike in 2016 has risen since last week, with the CME Fed Watch Tool indicating a 2 4 percent chance for a Sep ’ 16 move and a 44 percent likelihood of a Dec ’ 16 hike. This boosted the demand of the greenback, keeping it strong against its major peers. US Dollar Index made an intraday high of 95.68 and ended at 95.65 levels on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK

Rupee is likely to depreciate tracking losses in the Asian market equities as surge in bond yields has increased volatility thereby prompting investors to book profits. Moreover, increased speculation that the US Fed will hike borrowing rates in Dec’16 FOMC meeting has boosted the demand for the greenback in turn keeping the Indian rupee pressurized.

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Friday, September 9, 2016

Rupee falls further, opens 16 paise lower at 66.57/$

 
The Indian rupee fell in early trade Friday for the second consecutive session on recovery in US dollar. The currency has opened at 66.57 per dollar, down 16 paise compared with previous day's closing value of 66.41 a dollar.

Bhaskar Panda, HDFC Bank says last Friday's disappointing US non-farm payroll data has pushed back expectation of a Fed rate hike. Emerging markets have reacted positively and spot USD-INR was thus able to break below Rs 66.80/USD.

Panda expects the USD-INR pair to consolidate around Rs 66.40/USD. Meanwhile, the US dollar rose against the yen, spurred by a jump in oil prices that put upward pressure on US. Inflation expectations and pushed traders to increase their outlook on a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The euro rose to a two-week high after the European Central Bank downplayed the need for more economic stimulus.
 
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Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Indian rupee snapped two-day winning streak on Thursday


The Indian rupee snapped two-day winning streak on Thursday. The currency has opened at 66.47 a dollar, down 11 paise compared with 66.36 per dollar on Wednesday.

The dollar fell to a more than one-week low against the yen after Bank of Japan policymakers are divided ahead of the central bank's next meeting. The Bank of Japan is split on whether to add stimulus at its September 20-21 policy meeting, where central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said the board will conduct a comprehensive assessment of the effects of its massive stimulus programme.

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)
The trend of US Dollar Index was mostly mixed in yesterday’s trading session as markets still discounted the disappointing release of non - manufacturing and job data from the nation that grew lesser than the forecasted levels in Aug’16. Even average earnings and unemployment data came on a bitter note which has fueled speculation in the economy with respect to the strength of the labor market of the US. All the above factors have raised caution in the market with respect to delay in rate hike timing. In spite of the above negative factors, the DX ended on a positive note. Reason for this strange movement could be attributed to the upcoming meeting of the ECB Governing Council which boosted the demand for safe - haven greenback.

OUTLOOK
Rupee is likely to depreciate as strength in the DX will keep the Indian Rupee a bit pressurized. Moreover, weakness in the Asian market equities will also governed the trend of the Indian markets and its currency.

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Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Today Indian Rupee Appreciated further on Wednesday Against dollar


The Indian rupee appreciated further on Wednesday, hitting more than four-month high. The currency has opened at 66.36 a dollar, up 16 paise compared with previous day's closing value of 66.52 a dollar.The USD-INR pair is expected to trade within a narrow range of 66.43-66.60 a dollar,

US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)

US Dollar Index traded lower by more than 1 percent in yesterday’s trading session. Reason behind this weak ness could be attributed to the disappointing release of non - manufacturing data from the nation that grew lesser than the forecasted levels in Aug’16. The pace of growth was at its slowest in more than six years . Moreover, last week’s employment data from the nation also came on a weak note. NFP employment data plunged to 151K from previous month’s 275K in Aug’16. Even average earnings and unemployment data came on a bitter note which has fueled speculation in the economy with respect to the strength of th e labor market of the US. All the above factors have raised caution in the market with respect to delay in rate hike timing. The American currency made a n intraday low of 94.76 and closed at 94.82 on Tues day.

OUTLOOK  

Rupee is likely to appreciate in today ’s trading session as disappointing release of non - manufact ur ing data form A m erica will keep the DX pressurized in turn acting as a positive factor for the Indian currency. Moreover, heavy influx of capital into the domestic markets will further act as a positive factor.

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Monday, September 5, 2016

today Rupee at 4-month high, opens 29 paise higher at 66.53/$ in Currency Market

 
The Indian rupee has started off trade at four-month high on Tuesday after fall in US dollar due to weaker-than-expected jobs data. The currency has opened at 66.53 a dollar, up 29 paise compared with Friday's closing value of 66.82 a dollar.

The market opened after a long weekend as it was shut on Monday for Ganesh Chaturthi holiday.

Ashutosh Raina of HDFC Bank says the probability of a US rate hike in September has diminished after the recent weaker-than-expected jobs report.

The USD traded heavy against most of the currencies. According to him, the USD-INR pair is expected to trade in the 66.40-66.80 a dollar range, with Central Bank support expected to curtail further gains.

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Thursday, September 1, 2016

Today Rupee opens at 66.85 per dollar; gains 10 paise in market

 
The Indian rupee opened higher by 10 paise at 66.85 per dollar on Friday versus previous close 66.95.The dollar was on the back foot after taking a tumble following a surprise contraction in US manufacturing in August, casting some doubts on the strength of US economic growth ahead of the closely-watched employment data due later in the day. 
 
US DOLLAR INDEX (USD)
US Dollar Index traded lower by 0.4 percent in yesterday’s trading session. Reason behind this slump could be attributed to the weak manufacturing data from the nation that fell to a seven - month low in Aug ’16. Demand for factory orders has declined thereby affecting production activity and raising renewed concern of industrial weakness. Furthermore, investors play safe ahead of the release of NFP job data that is to be release d later in the day today. Labor market is one of the factors which are looked into by the US fed for rate hike decision. Hence, investors are playing safe and refrain from placing any risky bets. The American currency made an intraday low of 95.60 and closed at 95.66 on Thurs day.

OUTLOOK

Rupee is likely to appreciate owing to weakness seen in the IS Dollar Index after the disappointing release of manufacturing data from the nation which will keep the Rupee supportive. Moreover, heavy influx of capital into the domestic markets will further act as a positive factor.

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